Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO
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Cointelegraph by William Suberg
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests Bitcoin has exited its 2026 bear market based on a key profitability metric. The signal mirrors the recovery seen in early 2023, though liquidity concerns persist regarding a sustained macro uptrend.
Bitcoin's Market Shift: A Technical Reversal
Recent on-chain data provided by CryptoQuant indicates a significant shift in Bitcoin's market structure. CEO Ki Young Ju has identified a specific profitability metric that has flipped from negative to positive, reaching a reading of 0.042. This transition marks the first bullish signal for the asset in ten months, effectively signaling, according to the analysis, that the 2026 bear market has concluded.
Historical Parallels and Pattern Recognition
The significance of this shift is underscored by its historical precedent. The current breakout pattern mirrors the exact recovery signal observed at the beginning of 2023. By comparing current on-chain behavior to the 2023 cycle, analysts are drawing conclusions that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of accumulation and potential growth. This data-driven approach relies on profitability indicators that track the aggregate health of the Bitcoin network's participants, suggesting that the pressure to sell has reached an equilibrium point similar to previous recovery cycles.
The Liquidity Constraint
Despite the optimism generated by this profitability metric, market experts remain cautious regarding the broader macroeconomic environment. A critical factor currently under scrutiny is the insufficient level of market liquidity. While the profitability signal suggests a fundamental shift in sentiment, the ability of Bitcoin to sustain a macro price trend change depends heavily on the depth of the order books and the influx of capital. Without robust liquidity, even positive signals can face volatility or stagnation in the face of macro-economic headwinds.
Understanding On-Chain Profitability
On-chain metrics like those utilized by CryptoQuant are designed to measure the realized and unrealized gains of the entire Bitcoin holder base. When this indicator flips into positive territory, it typically suggests that the market has moved past a period of widespread capitulation. This transition is essential for establishing a new price floor, as it indicates that the majority of market participants are no longer selling at a loss, thereby reducing sell-side pressure on exchanges.
Future Trends and Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the market is expected to watch these metrics closely to see if the current positive momentum can overcome existing liquidity hurdles. If the 2023 template holds true, this initial signal could be the precursor to a more sustained bull-market recovery. However, traders and institutional investors are likely to maintain a guarded stance, waiting for subsequent confirmations in trading volume and institutional inflows to validate the end of the 2026 bear cycle.
Conclusion
In summary, while the identification of a bull-market reversal signal is a major milestone for Bitcoin, it represents only one piece of the complex market puzzle. The alignment of this metric with early 2023 data provides a strong analytical foundation for a recovery thesis. Nevertheless, the ongoing challenge of market liquidity will serve as the true test for whether Bitcoin can initiate a new, durable upward trend in the coming quarters.